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DesperateDad
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Posted: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 04:27 pm |
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Just as a UC committee is recommending that UC drop Subject Tests as an admissions requirement, a Cal Prof takes a contrarian view, and is publishing a study that says: gpa is best predictor of college grades, not only for Frosh year, but all four years; AP exams were second best, followed "closely" by the SAT Writing exam and an elective Subject Test. He concludes that Subject Tests are better predictors of college readiness than are the big two "national assessments" (i.e., SAT & ACT).
http://cshe.berkeley.edu/publications/docs/ROPS.Geiser.Basics.7.1.08.a.pdf
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 08:48 pm |
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The UC professor isn't alone --- here's an article about a study conducted at the U of Georgia that found similar results:
[url=http://media.http://www.redandblack.com/media/storage/paper871/news/2008/07/07/News/Uga-Findings.Support.Sat.Writing.Test-3388667.shtml]http://media.http://www.redandblack.com/media/storage/paper871/news/2008/07/07/News/Uga-Findings.Support.Sat.Writing.Test-3388667.shtml[/url]
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SoCalMom
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Posted: Tue Jul 8th, 2008 11:35 pm |
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And the end line to the story may go something like this:
1) When we're speaking of academics, their research and passionate opinions regarding testing, we'll often find the proverbial "On the one hand, on the other hand and on the other hand ... whoops, that's three hands!" Seriously though, each college (or college system) gets to make their own independent judgement on this one.
2) Unless your DS/DD is focused very early in the process on where they may want to apply, they may still be "stuck" taking subject tests because they won't know what XX college may require (which could change tomorrow!) and because it's reasonably recommended to take subject tests immediately following the class that best prepares them for it. For some students, this could be in May/June of their freshman year.
3) Just imagine the roar of approval if the SAT I was dropped by more of the colleges in the top 100! In the meantime, stay tuned on this very website for the latest information.
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Chedva
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Posted: Wed Jul 9th, 2008 12:53 pm |
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| Connecticut College has already reached the conclusion of the "contrarian" professor. It does not require (and I'm not sure even looks at) SAT I or ACT, but does require 2 SAT IIs.
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DesperateDad
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Posted: Wed Jul 9th, 2008 01:48 pm |
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carolyn:
The sad thing from a public policy perspective (at least in my opinion) is that earlier UC studies showed the exact same thing -- that the former Writing Subject Test + Math Subject Test had a higher predictive value than the SAT reasoning test by itself. Thus, instead of the New SAT, UC should've just dropped it entirely, and required three subject tests: Writing, Math (1 or 2) and a Subject Test of choice. (Yes, SAT I + Subject Tests combined have a greater predictability of Frosh grades than either test alone, but the greater predictability is marginal. However, it has a great economic cost to the applicants.)
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Wed Jul 9th, 2008 09:47 pm |
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SoCalMom wrote: 3) Just imagine the roar of approval if the SAT I was dropped by more of the colleges in the top 100! In the meantime, stay tuned on this very website for the latest information.
I think I mentioned this somewhere else here already, but at the HECA conference, I heard rumors from reliable sources that some of the "big names" are seriously considering some form of test optional policy within the next year. I don't want to spread rumors by mentioning names publicly, but suffice it to say that if the schools mentioned did move that way, things might change rather rapidly. Last edited on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 09:48 pm by CarolynLawrence
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Deja
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Posted: Fri Jul 11th, 2008 02:34 pm |
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CarolynLawrence wrote: I think I mentioned this somewhere else here already, but at the HECA conference, I heard rumors from reliable sources that some of the "big names" are seriously considering some form of test optional policy within the next year. I don't want to spread rumors by mentioning names publicly, but suffice it to say that if the schools mentioned did move that way, things might change rather rapidly.
Selfishly, I wish that schools would place a big emphasis on scores for this upcoming admissions cycle. My son did very well on the SATs, is in the largest ever college admissions pool, and misses the SAT score option by one year. (It would also be nice if colleges placed a big emphasis on the SAT Writing score! I wonder how long it will be before most colleges take that score seriously? The new SAT has been around for more than three years now, and there have been studies on it!)
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Fri Jul 11th, 2008 04:08 pm |
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Deja, You bring up the point I always make: One's feelings about test optional programs tends to vary with how good (or bad) one's test scores are. 
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Deja
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Posted: Fri Jul 11th, 2008 06:12 pm |
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CarolynLawrence wrote: Deja, You bring up the point I always make: One's feelings about test optional programs tends to vary with how good (or bad) one's test scores are.
Right. I knew as I was writing my reply that others would feel differently, depending upon how their own children do/did on standardized tests.
While there are problems relying too much on standardized test scores, I also feel that relying on high school GPA alone has plenty of problems, particularly since there is such variance in grading scales. Class rank has its problems, too, depending on how courses are/are not weighted.
It's an imperfect system. There is a thread on That Other Board asking for suggestions on how to improve the system. Nothing will happen in time (if indeed it ever does) to change things for this current (largest ever) college applications pool of students.
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Descartes
Super Moderator
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Posted: Fri Jul 11th, 2008 08:36 pm |
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It seems the data have made the way forward clear.
1) As DD has said, using the SAT Writing test, the Math Level II test (better than Math I because it has a higher ceiling), and one or two Subject tests of choice would improve predictive accuracy and, therefore, relevance. I have not seen any similar studies for the ACT components, but would be interested in those results, too. The ACT science section, in particular, seems to represent a potential value-add. Throw it in the mix if it proves worthwhile. If you think I am suggesting the two testing services merge, I am.
2) Remove superscoring as an incentive to take the test repeatedly--a distinct advantage for those who can afford it. "Best sitting" still provides some incentive to retake, but the promise of improvement is reduced by it.
3) Standardize all GPA schemes to an unweighted, 4.0 basis, except to substitute the test score of an AP test for grade points earned in a supporting course if it represents an improvement (i.e., replace an A = 4 in AP English with a 5 if one is earned on an AP English test). This (according to the studies) will enhance the predictive value of GPA's and help to make them more comparable between schools, too.
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SoCalMom
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Posted: Sat Jul 12th, 2008 04:44 pm |
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Descartes:
Your point number three makes a lot of sense ... but will it work logistically, given that AP tests are given in May, but the results aren't available until July, after HS is out? From the "other board" it appears there are lots of kids who are still waiting for their AP results and trying not to make the $8 phone call to the College Board to get them.
Your plan would also help to resolve some very unfortunate situations, such as the AP cheating scandal at Trabucco Hills HS in Orange County, CA. Over 600 exams will have to be retaken, in August. One boy had six exam scores nullified. For seniors who are going to college in late August or September, this will be too late for them. Thus, some of these students are now having to squeeze in qualifying tests they would not have had to take if they had AP scores and for big state schools, some have already missed out on enrolling in some of their preferred classes.
The proctoring must have been shabby to allow cell phone trading of information. When my DS went in for his first battery of AP exams this year, he labeled his cell phone with tape and put it in a zip lock bag, to turn in at the door. Other than that, all he took to school those days were pencils and a sharpener, and the graphing calculator just on the day of the AP Calculus BC exam. The teachers for the classes being tested those days were not allowed anywhere near the testing rooms. Due to a snafu with the language testing (listening portion) my son and others had to be sequestered in a room, where the teachers brought them lunch (gratis) from the cafeteria, to ensure they did not speak to the students who had not yet taken the first portion of the test.
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Descartes
Super Moderator
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Posted: Sat Jul 12th, 2008 06:01 pm |
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SoCalM, you're right, AP scores in the senior year would not figure into this scheme. But no grades under any scheme will have any relevancy late in the senior year because college admissions decisions will have been made by then (for the vast bulk of students). My AP-related suggestion pertained only to grades earned in the junior year and prior with respect towards how they are to be represented to colleges for the purpose of selective admissions decisions.
Of couse the scheme could still be maintained for the purpose of final GPA's (but not class-rankings, of course, because that moment would have passed, too.)
For the most part I think the CB exams are administered in environments that are far more controlled and secure than in the average HS classroom, but you do hear of problems. My S tells me he was shorted one minute of time on three sections of the ACT because the proctor apparently could not add time correctly to the room's analog clock. It made a difference, in his opinion. One could complain, I suppose, but to what effect?
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Chedva
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Posted: Sun Jul 13th, 2008 12:43 pm |
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So if you standardize grading to an "unweighted 4.0 scale", what happens to the "most rigorous curriculum"? Won't you then have many more students taking the easier classes to get the unweighted A rather than risking an unweighted B in an honors/AP class? How does that help?
In some schools, such as my d's, AP classes are offered to juniors and seniors only. The majority of top students take 1 or 2 AP classes as juniors. Your rubric would then penalize them against the schools that "push" AP classes and tests earlier in the high school career, because they would have no "offset" to raise their grades.
And why only use the AP grade if it "improves" their grade? Why should a 5 turn a B into an A, but a 3 not reduce an A to a B or C?
Unfortunately, there is no perfect system.
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Descartes
Super Moderator
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Posted: Sun Jul 13th, 2008 06:35 pm |
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There were two reasons for favoring the AP test grade only:
-- As the article says, there is no evidence that current grade weighting systems correlate better with first year college grades than unweighted systems. There is, however, data that shows better correlations with AP exam results. Thus, from the standpoint of future college success, only AP test grades should be used to impove the significance of GPA's.
-- The system proposed attempts to give incentive for taking the actual AP exam, rather than just the class.
Better correlations might actually be obtained if grades were allowed to go down with test results rather than up only, but I believe that the incentive gained by presenting no downside risk to students taking AP exams trumps the increased accuracy.
I would hope that some accounting would be given, as it is now, to what was available to the student or else schools with more restrictive AP programs would probably find themselves somewhat disadvantaged. On the other hand this could be an incentive to schools to expand their AP offerings.
Finally, my suggestion really is offered from the standpoint of evaluating college-readiness and not class ranking. Perhaps these concepts should be divorced from one another and class rank become a separate calculation from "college-readiness index". This would clarify that high schools can rank (or not rank) students for their own purposes but colleges will be evaluating students based on data that most closely signifies the potential success of prospects.
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SoCalMom
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Posted: Mon Jul 14th, 2008 12:04 am |
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| My DS's HS gives incentive for taking the AP exam. If the student does not take the exam, they do not get the weighted score in the GPA. Further, it is suggested that "tanking" the NCLB standardized tests (which here fall at the same time, roughly, as the AP exams) and/or failing to take the AP exam after taking the class can threaten one's ability to take other AP classes. The latter, of course, is meaningless.
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outwest
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Posted: Sun Jul 27th, 2008 03:22 pm |
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Unless your kids go to a private school, it is not ethical to require students to take the AP exam in order to get the weighted credit. The only way I could see this being a requirement is if the school is willing to pay for the exam. A lot of kids here take the classes, but not the exams because they cost over $80 a piece. Since so many college now require a score of 5 or a minimum of 4, the kids don't receive credit for those classes and it's money down the toilet.
Smith College went SAT optional this year, but I thought it was because their SAT scores were dropping overall. It is a nice way to hide that.
Last edited on Sun Jul 27th, 2008 03:23 pm by outwest
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outwest
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Posted: Sun Jul 27th, 2008 03:28 pm |
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PS I always find it surprising that people say the SAT1 isn't predictive of success in college as if that is something new. From all I have read, it never was meant to be predictive of college success, but rather predictive of a students ability to think. That doesn't have much predictive value, it just is what it is, but it is something the colleges generally like to know: How smart is the kid??
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Sun Jul 27th, 2008 11:02 pm |
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I personally would like to see more schools take the AP exam scores into account. The percentage of kids earning 3 or higher (technically considered "passing") has not risen at the rate that the number of kids taking AP courses has. In fact, the pass rate for AP exams is pretty dismal (don't quote me on this but I seem to recall that overall, something like 25% get a 3 or higher, but it varies by test of course). Yet, so many high schools tout the percentage of kids taking AP classes, and kids and parents feel such pressure to take them. Yet, are they really "college level courses" if most kids don't pass the exam?
I myself think that all of the money spent on AP courses and exams might be better spent improving the quality of instruction and expectations of ALL high school classes.
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Deja
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Posted: Mon Jul 28th, 2008 10:15 am |
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Descartes wrote: For the most part I think the CB exams are administered in environments that are far more controlled and secure than in the average HS classroom, but you do hear of problems. My S tells me he was shorted one minute of time on three sections of the ACT because the proctor apparently could not add time correctly to the room's analog clock. It made a difference, in his opinion. One could complain, I suppose, but to what effect?
Old post -- just saw it. There was a recent thread on CC about students cheating on the SAT. There is a big disincentive to an honest student reporting it; ALL scores may be cancelled.
Last year (2007) my son's AP exam was off-site, and the proctor never even took attendance. I find that surprising.
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DesperateDad
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Posted: Mon Jul 28th, 2008 03:21 pm |
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carolyn:
Another way to look at the data ...% of students who achieved at least one 3. US public schools in 2007: 698,182 students took at least one AP exam, and, of those, 425,733 scored at least one 3, or 61%. But, you are correct in that several years ago, 65% of testers acheived at least one 3. But, maybe that's a good thing as many innercity high schools are starting to expand their curriculum to include calc, for example.
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