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Lupine
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 03:44 pm |
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CardinalFang wrote: Lupine wrote:
The three I know are kids I've known for years, and they were applying to very selective colleges and selective colleges, but not the most highly selective schools. Each had wons some local or regional awards, none had won anything national as far as I know, none were recruited athletes. One was a legacy. Two were girls, one a boy.
I was kind of hoping to hear the SATs and GPAs of the kids, and the schools involved. But I understand if you don't want to post those details.
Top 7-15% of their class at high schools that commonly send the top 5% of the class to Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, U Chicago or Duke, or to somewhat less selective schools with a specific major, like music performance or 6 year BS/MD programs. SAT scores over 2000. These kids didn't get admitted to the very selective liberal arts colleges to which they'd applied -- I think Middlebury, Williams, St. Olaf, Bates were some of the names I heard, but I certainly don't know the full list.
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CardinalFang
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 03:50 pm |
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| Wow. Not so surprising about Middlebury and Williams, which are two of the most selective LACs in the country-- I'd classify them as high reaches for those students. I would have said Bates would be a match for students like that so they might not get in, but St. Olaf??? St. Olaf is rejecting/waitlisting those students?
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DesperateDad
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 04:02 pm |
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One of the problems with naviance is the over-reliance on test scores -- the scatterplot treats test scores the same as gpa, whereas all colleges say the the HS transcript is paramount in admissions. Depending of the biases of the application reader, test scores may not be considered much more important than the other stuff -- essays, recs, ECs; obviously, high math scores are required for engineering programs . And, of course, great essays, recs and ECs can easily overpower test scores. Thus, a 2350+ with poor essays could be easily shut out at many (if not all) highly selective schools, but a 2050 with great essays could have a much better chance.
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mackinaw
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 04:06 pm |
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I seriously think you can't draw any conclusions from that kind of data, CF (either Naviance or anecdotal evidence of turndowns from St. Olaf's, etc.). First off, the cases that you hear about are usually the outliers, and as outliers they may be a small percentage of otherwise similarly qualified students who applied to similar colleges. As outliers they may also have failed to diversify their portfolios, written prosaic essays, received a marginal letter of recommendation, etc. And every college has a limit to the number of students it wants who fit the cookie cutter; so "doing everything right" on your application does not guarantee your admission to a particular college, no matter that it's your own first choice and a great fit.
All that you've talked about so far on this thread -- about being strategic about your applications -- still makes sense. I don't see any conclusive evidence that this year is different from other years, except what we knew before which is that the cohort of high school graduates seeking college admission was at peak size.
Last edited on Mon May 19th, 2008 11:44 pm by mackinaw
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CardinalFang
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 04:29 pm |
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I have to draw conclusions from whatever data I have. Fang Jr needs to apply to schools next year, and I want to make sure he is aiming at the right level. Fang Jr doesn't have a school counselor other than me. Therefore, I have to learn whatever I can.
Schools publish data for accepted students and enrolled students, but they don't publish data for rejected students. In the case of the selective schools, I suspect that the rejected students are very little less qualified than the accepted students.
An admission officer at Macalester told me a story about a rejected candidate this year. She called up, suspecting that she had been rejected because they didn't think she was a fit for the school. The admissions officer had to gently explain that yes, Macalester does consider fit, but there are far more candidates who fit than there are places in the admitted list. He mentioned that nowadays, with the internet and so much information available, students who apply to small LACs are generally succeeding at applying to the specific schools that would fit them.
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 06:00 pm |
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CF, unless you have access to the school profiles of the individual schools, be careful about drawing conclusions from Naviance data. There can be a huge range of differences between admissions results at high schools that won't be apparent just from Naviance data, including the relationships the schools may or may not have with individual colleges. When I work with students, I always start with the school's profile, because otherwise I am not seeing the whole picture that colleges will see when they review the application. Of course, your son won't have a school profile (although I have seen some homeschool parents develop a semblance of one to accompany the application), but if you are going to use Naviance data, or individual results from a high school in order to compare your son, you really do need this piece of information.
Because you have the difficult task of being your son's primary counselor, it might be useful for you to get some help from someone who has experience with helping students through the admissions process. One thing you may want to consider is hiring a private college counselor to help you evaluate your son's chances from a more unbiased and experienced perspective. I would suggest looking for a counselor who has some experience with home-school students, and also a counselor who will allow you to buy just a few hours of consulting time to help you get a clear picture of what is realistic for your son.
To find a reliable counselor, I'd recommend using members of either the Higher Education Consulting Association (http://www.hecaonline.org) or the Independent Educational Consulting Association (http://www.educationalconsulting.org). These two organizations vet their memberships so that only well-qualified and experienced counselors can join, and their members tend to be very up-to-speed on the latest admissions trends and informed about individual colleges. They both have membership databases online. Another sign of a good, well-informed private counselor is one who is also involved with NACAC or the regional arms of NACAC -- these types of associations give counselors first hand contacts with admissions people at numerous colleges --- and that's something that you won't get just from looking at Naviance data. (As an aside, I am a member of HECA, NACAC, WACAC, and several other counseling-related organizations).
Another good resource for finding an experienced and reliable private counselor is to call the college counselor at your area's best private schools, and ask if they can refer you to reliable independent counselors. They often have a list of counselors that their students have had good experiences working with.
If you're not sure whether hiring a private counselor would be right for you, you might try starting a thread here about independent counselors. We have several parents who post here who have worked with private counselors, and they might have some interesting perspectives for you on their experiences, both positive and negative.
Last edited on Fri May 16th, 2008 06:15 pm by CarolynLawrence
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WestrnMom
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 06:55 pm |
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CarolynLawrence wrote
The number has been pretty consistent for the last four years. Also, the Common Application reports that the average number of applications sent per student on their system hasn't changed much either - it's about 3.5 or so on average. They are, however, seeing more and more students each year use the system, it's just that the number of applications being sent are about the same each year.
My son was one of those who applied to only a few schools using the CA but he applied to others using their own applications. I wasn't sure he applied to enough schools, although his number was more than 5. That didn't seem like enough variety or would yield enough choices. As it turned out, he got into just about all of them.
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ellenrch
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 08:48 pm |
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I just wanted to add another caution about comparing one student's stats to another's. It's easy to be seduced into thinking this will give you a formula for choosing schools (I was, in the beginning). When my S was rejected from an EA school, I was stunned that the stats reported by accepted students on CC were equal to, better than, and worse than his--and by no means all better than his. His essays were very good, as was his teacher recommendation. There was no way of looking at these stats and saying, oh, I see why this happened. When the university published data on the early action accepted students for the class of 2012, I learned a little more, but still not The Answer. At some point, though I wanted to find every bit of information I could to help my son be successful, I realized I just had to let go.
What this tells me is: There is no way to predict based on someone else's success or failure. That's why the "bottom up" advice is very sound, based on your own comparison of the school's published data and your student's record. What you can know, for some schools, is that if your child is at the tip-top of the GPA and SAT ranges, and especially if he/she exceeds those numbers, it's a safety. (I am not remembering what Carolyn says about choosing your "foundation" schools, but her advice is right on the money.)
CardinalFang: We did not use an independent counselor, though I considered it. For homeschoolers who don't have access to a HS counselor, I think it would be very useful. It was crazy enough going through this as a parent in a regular school!
And I really disapprove of the "dartboard" approach! Thanks, Carolyn, for your blog post on the subject.
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Fri May 16th, 2008 10:52 pm |
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Ellen, I think you bring up something really important that can't be mentioned enough. Simply put: it is impossible to control every aspect of college admissions. There are always going to be variables that can't be controlled or predicted, no matter how much research you do, no matter how much data you gather, and no matter how hard your kid works on their applications. That's just the nature of the beast. It is particularly hard for us parents because none of us wants to see our kids disappointed or hurt. 
But, once you accept that this isn't an exact science, you are more likely to make sure your child sees the necessity of having a safety net. In fact, I think that is the main thing parents can do to help their kids --- help them find and appreciate schools that might be good safety nets, and make sure that foundation is built on solid ground. I think if you look at all of the parents here who have been through the process, you'll see that almost everyone insisted on that safety net in one way or another.
After the safety net is determined, if your kid wants to use the Dartboard approach to aim at lottery schools, well, stock up on the duct tape, and hope for the best...but at least you will rest easier knowing that chances are good that your child has odds of having some good options when all is said and done.
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Deja
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Posted: Sat May 17th, 2008 11:18 am |
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Lupine wrote:
I hope the waitlists work out, but I'd guess that enough families know or have heard about these situations this year with kids they know are strong students that there will be a strong push to increase the number of applications next year even more.
Yes. While I know that the colleges and counselors don't like this idea, it really is necessary for certain groups of students.
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Deja
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Posted: Sat May 17th, 2008 11:30 am |
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DesperateDad wrote: One of the problems with naviance is the over-reliance on test scores -- the scatterplot treats test scores the same as gpa, whereas all colleges say the the HS transcript is paramount in admissions. Depending of the biases of the application reader, test scores may not be considered much more important than the other stuff -- essays, recs, ECs; obviously, high math scores are required for engineering programs . And, of course, great essays, recs and ECs can easily overpower test scores. Thus, a 2350+ with poor essays could be easily shut out at many (if not all) highly selective schools, but a 2050 with great essays could have a much better chance.
Exactly. We are told how colleges use holistic admissions, so simply relying on GPA and test scores seems to be unwise.Last edited on Sat May 17th, 2008 12:48 pm by Deja
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Deja
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Posted: Sat May 17th, 2008 11:34 am |
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CarolynLawrence wrote:
To find a reliable counselor, I'd recommend using members of either the Higher Education Consulting Association (http://www.hecaonline.org) or the Independent Educational Consulting Association (http://www.educationalconsulting.org). These two organizations vet their memberships so that only well-qualified and experienced counselors can join, and their members tend to be very up-to-speed on the latest admissions trends and informed about individual colleges. They both have membership databases online.
Another good resource for finding an experienced and reliable private counselor is to call the college counselor at your area's best private schools, and ask if they can refer you to reliable independent counselors. They often have a list of counselors that their students have had good experiences working with.
If you're not sure whether hiring a private counselor would be right for you, you might try starting a thread here about independent counselors. We have several parents who post here who have worked with private counselors, and they might have some interesting perspectives for you on their experiences, both positive and negative.
I went to the sites of the two groups mentioned above. The first one doesn't have its membership database online (they are updating it), and the second one doesn't have any consultants in my area.
I know someone I can ask about private counselor recs at the best private school in the area. Maybe I can get some names that way.
What is the cost for private counselors? While I know that costs can vary across the country (on everything!), what is the typical charge for a college admissions consultant?
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Deja
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Posted: Sat May 17th, 2008 11:40 am |
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outwest wrote: Deja, try to help him find 10-12. Have him start by applying to the ones he is absolutely sure about because he may lose steam as application season goes on. 10-12 is a lot of interviews! It is a lot of supplementls. It is a lot of money to spend and a lot of emails. It is a lot of work! It should be worth the effort, though. 
I think you are right about the possibility of losing steam. He is a procrastinating boy, after all (one of those). I really need some help with finding good schools for him. He's found a number of them on his own. There are a lot of schools out there for a Political Science/Government major (although he claims to want small and now in an urban area, where his political conservatism won't be extremely out of place, where there is a strong Catholic community and where there is an active Parliamentary Debate team).
Question about EA -- when EA acceptance comes, does it also come with a finaid offer? Or an approximation?
Also, if an ED application uses the Common App, what's this about locked from making any changes at that point? What if someone decides to apply to a school after that, and the school uses the Common App?
I'm just about an admissions newbie, because the process was so very different from my recent college graduate son!
Last edited on Sat May 17th, 2008 12:49 pm by Deja
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Sat May 17th, 2008 08:18 pm |
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Deja wrote: What is the cost for private counselors? While I know that costs can vary across the country (on everything!), what is the typical charge for a college admissions consultant?
It varies. A lot of counselors will only charge "all inclusive" fees, so you can end up paying $1000+ for a full range of services, some of which your child might not need. So, a good first question to ask is whether the counselor has hourly fees. HECA, by the way, did a membership survey a year or two ago, and found that hourly fees ranged from $30 an hour to upwards of $200 an hour, depending on the counselor, so there is a huge variety. I would not work with a counselor who doesn't give you an upfront estimate of how many hours might be needed for the help you are seeking. And be absolutely sure to check some references before agreeing to work with anyone.
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CarolynLawrence
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Posted: Sat May 17th, 2008 08:25 pm |
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Deja wrote:
Question about EA -- when EA acceptance comes, does it also come with a finaid offer? Or an approximation?
Also, if an ED application uses the Common App, what's this about locked from making any changes at that point? What if someone decides to apply to a school after that, and the school uses the Common App?
In answer to your questions:
1. For ED, you typically will get the financial aid offer at the same time or shortly after you are admitted. EA can vary widely, with many schools not sending out EA FA offers until they send them out for RD. (Although, if you call the FA office and ask for an early FA evaluation, they often will comply). One advantage of EA at some (not all) schools is that EA applicants get considered for additional merit scholarships. Notification of those usually comes pretty quickly.
2. This past year, the CA still allowed changes. Next year, they are probably going to change back to not allowing changes on the essays after EA/ED applications are sent out. I will be writing about this, and other issues coming down the pike, in my blog, over the next few weeks. The Universal College Application, which is very similar to the CA, and used by about 60 schools now, will still allow changes. And, of course, if schools have their own applications, you are free to use them and submit different materials to each school.
I have some ideas for you for your son, but I'm rushing out the door, so will try to post them later.
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ellenrch
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Posted: Sun May 18th, 2008 01:17 am |
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Just a clarification: My son did have one "dartboard" school (out of six) that he insisted on applying to (rejected, but he knew he would be). That required a lot of duct tape on my part!
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outwest
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Posted: Mon May 19th, 2008 04:26 am |
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With my Ds EA school she received a merit award with the decision at the end of December, but the financial aid did not come until mid/end of March. So, you are right if you are wondering about being able to go to the EA school based on both admission and FA. But, it is nice to know early that one school wants you. It makes the possible rejections/waitlists sting a little less.
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Descartes
Super Moderator
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Posted: Wed May 21st, 2008 03:10 pm |
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Today's WSJ has more details on the waitlisting situation:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121132542836108695.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_pj
It is unlikely we'll see this next year.
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Wendy (wjb)
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Posted: Wed May 21st, 2008 03:58 pm |
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Thanks for linking to the WSJ article, Descartes. 800 off the wait list at U of Wisconsin. What on earth were they thinking? Can't they predict their enrollment any better than that?
I am feeling cynical about the decisions by H and P and U Va to eliminate their early programs. It has really messed up the system this year. The programs were supposedly eliminated because they "advantaged the advantaged." But SCEA, at least does not "advantage the advantaged" from a financial standpoint. Unlike binding ED, SCEA is not binding. SCEA applicants are free to apply concurrently to schools with rolling admissions, and they are at complete liberty to apply to any and all schools RD and compare and re-negotiate financial aid packages before making a commitment.
As for the argument that less "sophisticated" students don't understand their early options, that, too, is junk IMO. Any student who is sophisticated enough to apply to HYP should also be sophisticated enough to understand his or her early acceptance options.
Now H and P are taking many, many kids off their waitlists. So much for not favoring the favored. It takes the same level of sophistication to increase one's chances of moving from a waitlist as it does to understand one's early options. During the waitlist period, the support of a good GC doesn't hurt, either. And in most situations, moving off the wait list carries the economic burden of forfeiting the initial deposit (required at all but a handful of colleges). No benefit to lower income students there.
And talk about stress! At least with SCEA/ED, many students are done with the stress factor by December. This year, with the trickle-down effect from H on down, large numbers of students may feel uncertainty about their college destinations well into the summer.
I know H and P won't reinstitute their early programs next year. But I bet both of them will be sending out tons of academic likely letters to try to maximize yield and avoid having to accept hundreds off the waitlist again.
Last edited on Wed May 21st, 2008 03:59 pm by Wendy (wjb)
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CardinalFang
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Posted: Wed May 21st, 2008 04:22 pm |
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Wendy (wjb) wrote: Thanks for linking to the WSJ article, Descartes. 800 off the wait list at U of Wisconsin. What on earth were they thinking? Can't they predict their enrollment any better than that?
800 out of a freshman class of more than 10,000 at Wisconsin. That's around eight percent. 200 out of a freshman class of around 1200 at Harvard. That's sixteen percent. So which school is worse at predicting?
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